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SE predicted by accuracy

The typical standard errors between pairs of models on this dataset as a function of the absolute accuracy.

SE vs accuracy difference

The standard error of each model pair against their observed accuracy difference. Pairs below a reference line differ by more than the corresponding number of standard errors, i.e. they are statistically distinguishable at that level.

CDF of question level accuracy

Results table by model

model pass1 pass@count win_rate count SE(A) SE_x(A) SE_pred(A)
Qwen1.5-110B 65.2 65.2 33.6 1 0.94 NaN NaN
Meta-Llama-3-70B 63.7 63.7 32.4 1 0.95 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-72B 63.2 63.2 32 1 0.96 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-32B 61.4 61.4 31 1 0.97 NaN NaN
Mixtral-8x22B-v0.1 61.2 61.2 30.8 1 0.97 NaN NaN
dbrx-base 55.9 55.9 26.9 1 0.98 NaN NaN
deepseek-llm-67b-base 55.5 55.5 26.9 1 0.98 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-14B 54.7 54.7 26.1 1 0.99 NaN NaN
Mixtral-8x7B-v0.1 50.4 50.4 23.5 1 0.99 NaN NaN
llama2_70B 48.9 48.9 22.7 1 0.99 NaN NaN
llama_65B 48.4 48.4 21.8 1 0.99 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-7B 48.2 48.2 22 1 0.99 NaN NaN
Meta-Llama-3-8B 47.4 47.4 21.9 1 0.99 NaN NaN
gemma-7b 45.3 45.3 20.8 1 0.99 NaN NaN
Mistral-7B-v0.1 44 44 19.4 1 0.98 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-4B 42.9 42.9 18.9 1 0.98 NaN NaN
llama_33B 41.4 41.4 18.6 1 0.98 NaN NaN
llama2_13B 38 38 16.6 1 0.96 NaN NaN
llama2_07B 34.8 34.8 16.1 1 0.94 NaN NaN
deepseek-llm-7b-base 34.3 34.3 15.2 1 0.94 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-1.8B 34.1 34.1 15.9 1 0.94 NaN NaN
mpt-30b 34.1 34.1 15.3 1 0.94 NaN NaN
llama_13B 31.6 31.6 14.4 1 0.92 NaN NaN
stablelm-base-alpha-7b-v2 31.3 31.3 14.4 1 0.92 NaN NaN
stablelm-3b-4e1t 29.9 29.9 13.4 1 0.91 NaN NaN
deepseek-moe-16b-base 29.7 29.7 14 1 0.91 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-0.5B 29.4 29.4 13.9 1 0.9 NaN NaN
gemma-2b 27.3 27.3 15 1 0.88 NaN NaN
llama_07B 24.6 24.6 12.7 1 0.85 NaN NaN
pythia-12b-deduped-v0 24.5 24.5 13.2 1 0.85 NaN NaN
pythia-2.8b-deduped 23.5 23.5 13.2 1 0.84 NaN NaN
pythia-6.9b-deduped-v0 23.4 23.4 12.9 1 0.84 NaN NaN
falcon-7b 22.9 22.9 12.5 1 0.83 NaN NaN
pythia-1b-deduped 22.3 22.3 12.5 1 0.83 NaN NaN
pythia-1.4b-deduped-v0 22 22 12.1 1 0.82 NaN NaN