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SE predicted by accuracy

The typical standard errors between pairs of models on this dataset as a function of the absolute accuracy.

SE vs accuracy difference

The standard error of each model pair against their observed accuracy difference. Pairs below a reference line differ by more than the corresponding number of standard errors, i.e. they are statistically distinguishable at that level.

CDF of question level accuracy

Results table by model

model pass1 pass@count win_rate count SE(A) SE_x(A) SE_pred(A)
dbrx-base 65.9 65.9 24.8 1 1.4 NaN NaN
Meta-Llama-3-70B 65 65 22.2 1 1.4 NaN NaN
Mixtral-8x22B-v0.1 61.9 61.9 19.5 1 1.4 NaN NaN
DeepSeek-V2 60.2 60.2 18.4 1 1.4 NaN NaN
Mixtral-8x7B-v0.1 60.2 60.2 18.2 1 1.4 NaN NaN
deepseek-llm-67b-base 57.3 57.3 16.2 1 1.4 NaN NaN
llama_65B 55.2 55.2 14.6 1 1.5 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-110B 55 55 15.7 1 1.5 NaN NaN
llama2_70B 54.6 54.6 16 1 1.5 NaN NaN
falcon-40b 54.4 54.4 14.3 1 1.5 NaN NaN
Mistral-7B-v0.1 54.2 54.2 14.4 1 1.5 NaN NaN
llama_33B 53.8 53.8 14 1 1.5 NaN NaN
Meta-Llama-3-8B 53.6 53.6 14.2 1 1.5 NaN NaN
gemma-7b 53.4 53.4 14.1 1 1.5 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-72B 52.4 52.4 13.6 1 1.5 NaN NaN
llama2_13B 50.2 50.2 14.3 1 1.5 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-32B 50.1 50.1 13 1 1.5 NaN NaN
mpt-30b 49.4 49.4 11.6 1 1.5 NaN NaN
llama_13B 48.6 48.6 11 1 1.5 NaN NaN
deepseek-moe-16b-base 47.6 47.6 10.5 1 1.5 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-14B 45.6 45.6 10.5 1 1.5 NaN NaN
llama_07B 44.9 44.9 9.41 1 1.5 NaN NaN
deepseek-llm-7b-base 44.6 44.6 9.01 1 1.5 NaN NaN
falcon-7b 44.1 44.1 8.82 1 1.5 NaN NaN
llama2_07B 43.5 43.5 10.2 1 1.5 NaN NaN
mpt-7b 42.5 42.5 8.55 1 1.4 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-7B 42.1 42.1 9.21 1 1.4 NaN NaN
gemma-2b 41.7 41.7 7.9 1 1.4 NaN NaN
stablelm-base-alpha-7b-v2 40.7 40.7 7.41 1 1.4 NaN NaN
stablelm-3b-4e1t 39.7 39.7 7.24 1 1.4 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-4B 39.5 39.5 8.14 1 1.4 NaN NaN
pythia-12b-deduped-v0 38.1 38.1 6.73 1 1.4 NaN NaN
pythia-6.9b-deduped-v0 35.8 35.8 6.04 1 1.4 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-1.8B 34.3 34.3 6.18 1 1.4 NaN NaN
pythia-2.8b-deduped 32.8 32.8 5.63 1 1.4 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-0.5B 29.4 29.4 4.66 1 1.3 NaN NaN
pythia-1.4b-deduped-v0 27.9 27.9 4.91 1 1.3 NaN NaN
pythia-1b-deduped 27.2 27.2 4.43 1 1.3 NaN NaN