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SE predicted by accuracy

The typical standard errors between pairs of models on this dataset as a function of the absolute accuracy.

SE vs accuracy difference

The standard error of each model pair against their observed accuracy difference. Pairs below a reference line differ by more than the corresponding number of standard errors, i.e. they are statistically distinguishable at that level.

CDF of question level accuracy

Results table by model

model pass1 pass@count win_rate count SE(A) SE_x(A) SE_pred(A)
Qwen1.5-110B 84.1 84.1 48.9 1 1 NaN NaN
Meta-Llama-3-70B 82.7 82.7 47.6 1 1 NaN NaN
Mixtral-8x22B-v0.1 80.2 80.2 45.7 1 1.1 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-72B 78.4 78.4 44.5 1 1.1 NaN NaN
DeepSeek-V2 77.3 77.3 43.5 1 1.2 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-32B 76.3 76.3 42.7 1 1.2 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-14B 69.5 69.5 37.7 1 1.3 NaN NaN
dbrx-base 69.5 69.5 37.8 1 1.3 NaN NaN
deepseek-llm-67b-base 62.9 62.9 32.8 1 1.3 NaN NaN
Mixtral-8x7B-v0.1 60.3 60.3 30.9 1 1.3 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-7B 59.1 59.1 30.7 1 1.4 NaN NaN
gemma-7b 56.8 56.8 29.1 1 1.4 NaN NaN
llama2_70B 56.7 56.7 28.8 1 1.4 NaN NaN
Meta-Llama-3-8B 55.4 55.4 27.8 1 1.4 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-4B 55 55 27.8 1 1.4 NaN NaN
llama_65B 50.8 50.8 24.9 1 1.4 NaN NaN
Mistral-7B-v0.1 41.2 41.2 19 1 1.4 NaN NaN
llama2_13B 38 38 17 1 1.3 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-1.8B 36.9 36.9 16.8 1 1.3 NaN NaN
llama_33B 34.6 34.6 15.4 1 1.3 NaN NaN
falcon-40b 27.1 27.1 11.5 1 1.2 NaN NaN
llama2_07B 22.5 22.5 8.99 1 1.2 NaN NaN
mpt-30b 21.8 21.8 8.71 1 1.1 NaN NaN
Qwen1.5-0.5B 20.9 20.9 8.75 1 1.1 NaN NaN
gemma-2b 18.8 18.8 7.76 1 1.1 NaN NaN
deepseek-moe-16b-base 18.6 18.6 7.21 1 1.1 NaN NaN
llama_13B 17.6 17.6 7.06 1 1 NaN NaN
deepseek-llm-7b-base 14.1 14.1 5.53 1 0.96 NaN NaN
llama_07B 10.9 10.9 4.04 1 0.86 NaN NaN
stablelm-3b-4e1t 10.8 10.8 3.95 1 0.85 NaN NaN
falcon-7b 7.88 7.88 2.99 1 0.74 NaN NaN
stablelm-base-alpha-7b-v2 7.35 7.35 2.93 1 0.72 NaN NaN
pythia-12b-deduped-v0 3.56 3.56 1.5 1 0.51 NaN NaN
pythia-2.8b-deduped 2.96 2.96 1.4 1 0.47 NaN NaN
pythia-6.9b-deduped-v0 2.88 2.88 1.33 1 0.46 NaN NaN
pythia-1.4b-deduped-v0 2.05 2.05 1.19 1 0.39 NaN NaN
pythia-1b-deduped 1.97 1.97 1.04 1 0.38 NaN NaN